Pre-season Top 30 Draft Prospects

A good way to kick off the 2009 draft blog is with my first top 30 prospect list. This should be my last top 30, though. I'm planning to increase it to 50 for the next one in April then maybe 70-80 for the final one right before the draft in June.

One thing I'd like to point out about the rankings is the mlb comparison. The comparison is pretty much who I think each prospect could be if they answer the questions they need to answer and reach their potential. Some guys further down the list may be compared to better big leaguers than players higher up the list. The main reason for that would be because the player higher up the list has fewer questions to answer and is little more likely to reach his potential.

With that said, here is the list:

1) Stephen Strasburg-RHP-San Diego State
-Was there ever a doubt? Strasburg is following in the footsteps of Mark Prior and David Price as absolute stud college pitchers. Some have concerns about Strasburg’s arm action sighting that it’s very similar to Prior’s. It is something to monitor but it would be hard to move him from the top spot. Strasburg throws in the 94-98 range consistently hitting as high as 101. He also has a very nice slurvy breaking ball that he commands well.
*MLB Comparison: Josh Beckett

2) Donovan Tate-OF-Georgia HS
-Tate only went 1 for 4 in the AFLAC all star game but he looked like he was locked in, in each AB. He was not overpowered or fooled by any of the pitches being thrown at him by some of high school’s best arms. Tate is a filled out 5 tool stud and could be ready to do damage in the pros immediately. I love his balanced approach at the plate and oh by the way, he ran a 6.34, 60 and has run his fastball up to 91 MPH. WOW!
*MLB comparison: Vladimir Guerrero

3) Grant Green-SS-USC
-Green was an absolutely beast in the Cape Cod league last summer hitting .348 with 6 HRs. However, he did make 17 errors in 41 games. This was surprisingly poor defensive performance from a guy who only made 9 errors in 50 games his sophomore year at USC. Green will try to prove anyone that questions his defensive ability at SS wrong this coming season. In the process he should only continue to make people believe in his bat.
*MLB comparison: Bigger Stephen Drew, maybe Evan Longoria

4) Alex White-RHP-UNC
-This is a close one between White and Crow. Both pitchers have great 91-95 MPH fastball that have plus movement and also a wipeout slider that is difficult to hit for any hitter. What pushes White ahead a little is that he has cleaner mechanics, is a year younger and a little bigger. Being able to consistently control his stuff is one of the few things White needs to work on in 2009.
*MLB comparison: Justin Verlander

5) Aaron Crow-RHP-Fort Worth
-It will be interesting to see how Crow does in the Independent League. I’m sure Missouri would have liked to have him back in a rotation with Kyle Gibson but scouts have said before that getting good results is more impressive in the Indy Leagues against more experienced hitters than in college baseball. Crow, when he is on, and he is usually on, is one of the most dominant pitchers in this draft class. His fastball features great movement and his slider is filthy. One thing that Crow is better at than Alex White is consistently pounding the strike zone.
*MLB Comparison: Matt Garza

6) Matt Purke-LHP-Texas HS
-Purke has the most electric repertoire in the high school class and perhaps the second best overall behind only Strasburg. His only downside is that his command might be a little bit of a concern but it’s not a big one. Purke is a fearless competitor that is capable of blowing away hitters at anytime and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was the 2nd player taken in the draft. Personally, though, I’d go with the similar two-pitch studs but from the college ranks in White and Crow.
*MLB Comparison: Scott Kazmir

7) Dustin Ackley-1B/OF-UNC
-There isn’t a better pure hitter in this draft than Dustin Ackley. Questions about where he fits best on the diamond and potential power are what have scouts questioning his value. If a team is looking to get a top notch hitter capable of hitting .300 with good patience, Ackley would be a good pick.
*MLB comparison: Kevin Youkilis

8) Tyler Matzek-LHP-California HS
-Deciding who the top arm is in the high school class is a tough decision. Purke probably has the best arm but Matzek is maybe more of a complete package. He features a 4 pitch mix that he can throw for strikes, good size and good mechanics. It will be interesting to see who goes first in the draft between Matzek and Purke but more than likely it will be Purke.
*MLB Comparison: Cliff Lee/Oakland Mark Mulder

9) Jacob Turner-RHP-Missouri HS
-Turner has all the makings of a future #2-3 starter. He stands 6’4” throwing low 90s with good movement and command as well as a strong curveball and a very good changeup. Turner seems very polished for a high schooler and it might not take him long to climb the minor league ladder.
*MLB comparison: James Shields

10) Kyle Gibson-RHP-Mizzou
-Gibson is a great prospect that won’t blow you away with overwhelming stuff. He’s a lanky kid with 3 pitches that can be anywhere from average to above average at anytime. His fastball has good arm side run and comes in at about 89-92 consisently. His cutter is a good pitch that he commands really well and his slider seems more like a looser cutter rather than a wipeout, strikeout pitch, but it is very good. Overall he’s a pretty polished righty.
*MLB Comparison: Adam Wainwright (good slider instead of curveball)

11) Zach Wheeler-RHP-Georgia HS
-There is just something about Wheeler that makes me say “this kid is going to be a stud.” Perhaps it is the perfect pitchers build, maybe it’s the consistent 90-93 MPH fastball that touches 95, it could also be a plus, sharp curveball. There is plenty to like about Wheeler who should be a top 15 pick in June.
*MLB comparison: Jeremy Guthrie

12) Mike Minor-LHP-Vanderbilt
-Minor is reminiscent of Vanderbilt alum Jeremy Sowers in that he is very refined and has a good arsenal of pitches. Where Minor has Sowers beat is in size and velocity. Sowers sat in the 86-89 range while Minor sits more around 88-91 touching 92-93. A team looking for a potential #3 starter that can fly through the minors and be in the majors by 2011 would be very interested in Minor.
*MLB comparison: Paul Maholm

13) Mychal Givens-SS-Florida HS
-Givens is like the Aaron Hicks of this draft. A lot of teams might want to draft the kid as a pitcher but he might just work out better in the field. He’s a pretty good defender with plus range, good actions and as you probably guessed a plus arm. At the plate, Givens is raw. Not Matt Bush raw but more like Justin Jackson raw. Given time, Givens could become a tremendous, exciting prospect at shortstop. On the hill, he needs to improve his offspeed offerings a little. His fastball is a plus pitch already as it can touch 97-98 MPH
*MLB comparison: Rafael Furcal

14) Andy Oliver-LHP-Oklahoma State
-The question that Oliver will need to answer this year is can he throw his breaking ball and/or changeup with consistency? He already has a top 5-10 fastball sitting 91-94 MPH with good tailing action. He has flashed a plus breaking ball in the past but throwing it whenever he wants will be the rocket that shoots him up the list. He could also benefit from throwing his fastball for more strikes as his control tends to waver a bit, but the breaking ball is probably of more concern to scouts.
*MLB comparison: John Danks

15) Kentrail Davis-OF-Tennessee
-Davis is just a sophomore but he is going to be eligible for the 2009 draft because of his age. His size won’t wow you but his tools more than likely will. Despite being 5’9”, Davis has the chance to be a 20-30 HR hitter. He also has the chance to be a .300 hitter, though, that might be better known with a 2nd year of college ball. Everyone draws the comparison to Kirby Puckett because of their comparable size and hitting ability but I’ll try a different one just for the sake of being different. Either way he compares to some pretty good ball players.
*MLB comparison: Curtis Granderson but smaller

16) Shelby Miller-RHP-Texas HS
-I have not seen Miller so I’m going off a few reports from newspapers and a late October HS tourney in Florida in which Miller impressed. The Texas A&M recruit hit 94 MPH and showed two premium offspeed pitches. Miller throws with smooth mechanics and has good command of all of his pitches. There is a chance he could climb into the top ten by the time the draft rolls around.
*MLB comparison: Zack Greinke

17) Matt Davidson-3B-California HS
-There aren’t many players in the high school class, even the entire draft class, that match Davidson’s power potential. However, he isn’t an all or nothing kind of hitter. He stays balanced at the plate and drives the ball all around. Defensively, he has made significant strides at 3rd base and he should be able to do more than just hold his own at the hot corner.
*MLB comparison: Troy Glaus, perhaps David Wright?

18) Austin Maddox-C-Texas HS
-A big catcher that swings a big bat and has a big arm. That may be the best way to describe Maddox. At the plate, he is capable of hitting bombs and on the mound he can touch 95-96. Some of the other factors that make him a great prospect(because plus power and a 95 mph arm doesn’t do it of course): solid defensively as he frames pitches well and can obviously gun down runners and he also has the makings of a plus power curveball. The big question is at 6’3”, 210-220, will Maddox be too big to catch?
*MLB comparison: Geovany Soto with a better arm

19) Keyvius Sampson-RHP-Florida HS
-A player that could climb a lot of lists during the spring is Keyvius Sampson. Not many looked better than this kid at the AFLAC game. He combines smooth mechanics with a 90-93 MPH fastball and a plus, slow curveball. The ease of his delivery might lead to increased velocity in coming years. Sampson is a very exciting young pitcher with a bright future. Commanding his fastball in the zone will be one of the few things that he needs to work on in the coming years.
*MLB comparison: Javier Vasquez

20) Kendal Volz-RHP-Baylor
-Volz is a big guy with good stuff. He features a strong sinker that touches 94-95 but sits closer to 89-92 consistently and he backs it up with a pair of solid-average offspeed pitches. He hasn’t gotten the best results at Baylor so far but this could be the year he breaks out. Volz would benefit from refining his offspeed stuff as his fastball is first round caliber. After a great showing in Team USA’s bullpen over the summer (14 INN, 6 H, 0.00 ERA), some think he might be better off coming out of the pen.
*MLB comparison: Joe Blanton/Ricky Nolasco

21) Alex Wilson-RHP-Texas A&M
-Reports are saying that he got knocked around in the fall but he isn’t far removed from Tommy John surgery. He’s running his fastball back up to 97-98 with a good slider so just give him time. Wilson could probably be lower on the list but he has a good chance to climb up as the season goes on. I’ll just put him here for now. He has the potential to be a major steal and a possible #2-3 starter in the future. But he has some work to do.
*MLB comparison: AJ Burnett

22) Jason Stoffel-CL-Arizona
-The only remaining member of Arizona’s monster trio of relievers might just be the best. Stoffel doesn’t throw as hard as his former teammates but he has the best command and a plus curveball that gives him a great 1-2 combo in the 9th inning.
*MLB comparison: Joakim Soria

23) Luke Bailey-C-Georgia HS
-Another catcher with good power potential at the plate. Bailey isn’t as good all-around as Maddox but what he could possibly offer offensively makes him a very intriguing prospect. Behind the plate, Bailey has few shortcomings as well.
*MLB Comparison: Michael Barrett

24) Robbie Shields-SS-Florida Southern
-Being from a D-2 school, Shields doesn’t have the opportunity to hit against the best competition. However, he got the opportunity to show scouts he can hit 90 MPH fastballs and sharp breaking balls in the Cape Cod league and he took advantage of it. He hit .349 with 2 HR against some of college baseball’s best pitchers. Some question his ability to stay at shortstop but he has a strong arm and smooth actions which suggest he might be able to stay there.
*MLB comparison: JJ Hardy

25) DJ LeMahieu-SS-LSU
-LeMahieu is another draft eligible sophomore due to age and much like Kentrail Davis, this kid can hit. He provides plenty of power already but his 6’3” frame hints that there could be more. Defensively, he can play shortstop well enough but his size may force him off the position. Another strong year and the Tigers shortstop could rise in the rankings.
*MLB comparison: Jhonny Peralta

26) Bryan Morgado-LHP-Tennessee
-Another survivor of Tommy John surgery, Morgado saw only improvement in his ability after returning to 100% last year. A nice frame, a 90-93 MPH fastball and a potentially plus curveball make this lefty a very good looking prospect. Improving command of his stuff will be something he needs to work on in 2009 but getting further away from surgery should help.
*MLB comparison: Randy Wolf

27) Ben Tootle-CL-Jacksonville State
-I don’t know terribly much about Ben Tootle other than he throws gas. About 94-97 consistently to be exact. And he throws it in the strike zone. And he mixes in a pretty good downward curveball as well. Tootle dominated in the Cape Cod league last summer as Falmouth’s closer and that is likely where his future is. His numbers as a starter with Jacksonville State were not bad but not what you’d expect from a potential 1st rounder in Ohio Valley Conference ball (87 hits allowed in 86 innings with 79 Ks). Tootle is this year’s Ryan Perry.
*MLB comparison: JJ Putz

28) Mike Leake-RHP-Arizona State
-Leake is like the Zach Putnam of this draft. He features a very nice sinker in the 88-92 range and compliments it with a trio of average offspeed pitches, though his breaker can be above average at times. I’m not sure if his potential is better than a back end guy, though, and I worry that Pat Murphy is going to run him out to the mound until his arm falls off seeing as how he is one of the few ASU pitchers that is good.
*MLB comparison: Jake Westbrook

29) Brian Goodwin-OF-California HS
-Goodwin reminds me a lot of Rangers 2007 supp. 1st rounder Julio Borbon. Borbon came out of college but both are speedy, leadoff hitting types. Goodwin doesn’t have very much power potential but he sprays the ball around well and will play good defense, more than likely in CF. Goodwin shot up draft boards, if he wasn’t up high already, after winning the MVP of the AFLAC game. He really seems to have that slap hit to the opposite field down already just like the man I’m gonna compare him to.
*MLB comparison: Kenny Lofton

30) Ryan Jackson-SS-Miami(FL)
It will be interesting to see how Jackson does in a lineup without Alonso, Tekotte and Weeks. He hit .360 last year but it had to be nice always hitting with guys on base. Still, many believed Jackson was just a very raw prospect coming out of high school and that 3 years of college ball would turn him into a 1st rounder. So far, those people are looking correct. Jackson is a good gap to gap hitter with some possible power potential in his 6’3”, 180 frame. Defensively, he is one of the best at shortstop in this class.
*MLB comparison: Yuniesky Betancourt